Getting money in bad: thoughts on the blue line

Blogger "microstakes bankroll builder" had a post this week that got me thinking about the blue line which measures EV. He wrote, in part:

Anyone that whines about being unlucky has "loser" written all over them in my mind, and who probably persuades themselves eventually into seeing monsters under the bed, gorging on their bad-beat-jackpot stories and continuing their boring downward spiralling vicious circle and compounding their bad luck.

Lets just think about it for a second…….

Conversely, of course you can only run above EV when you consistently get your money in bad....makes sense no? getting your money in bad is baaaaad. Getting your money in good (ie at least 51%, but usually at least 68% upwards) means you can only be sucked out on. You can’t give the bad beat.

 (My bold). This seems contradictory: if we do worry constantly about "monsters under the bed" we'll never get our money in bad, and we'll never get it in good without the absolute nuts either.

In particular, the blue line doesn't take into account fold equity, our perceived range, and pots odds, all of which can be dubious theoretical puzzle pieces in the micros, but still important for playing the game correctly, regardless of whether we're actually getting our money in bad or not.

Two of my hands this week show these phenomenon in action.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($95.90)
Button ($61.95)
SB ($30)
Hero (BB) ($50)
UTG ($52.90)
UTG+1 ($51.25)
MP1 ($50.50)
MP2 ($60.85)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6, A
2 folds, MP1 bets $1, 1 fold, CO calls $1, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.50

Sort of off to an odd beginning. Middle Position #1 just min raised my blind, and the Cut Off only calls. With a suited Ace and 50 cents already in the pot, I have to complete.

Flop: ($3.25) J, A, A (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $2, CO calls $2, Hero calls $2

I flop trip aces, and decide to slow play.

Turn: ($9.25) 6 (3 players)

Yahtzee! I turn the second nuts, behind only an unlikely AJ (which would be the case Ace and second Jack in play). No point in slow playing, but I don't want to push out heart draws so I make a here-kitty-kitty bet of 1/3 the pot

Hero bets $3, MP1 raises to $7

This raise by MP1 is absolutely great news, and I immediately put him on JJ.

CO calls $7

This I don't like so much. Now I'm thinking CO has the case Ace, certainly with a better kicker than I have, but not a J -- again, I'm sure I know where three of those are.

Hero raises to $15

So now I have to build the pot against MP1's smaller FH and charge the Cut Off for his unlikely draw.

, MP1 calls $8, CO calls $8

Well, I couldn't push the CO out. He is a 33/9, and they do tend to be calling stations, so this isn't too unexpected. He definitely has Ax for some given x, I decide.

River: ($54.25) K (3 players)

Well, that's about the worst card in the deck. If CO has AK, I'm hosed. MP1 might decide I have AK and so I go for thin value (which should also look a lot like a missed flush draw, inducing a shove).

Hero bets $10, MP1 raises to $32.50 (All-In)

Good, good.

, CO raises to $55

Oh, #@@#%. So now what do I do?

I'm getting 5.85:1 on a call, and exactly two hands beat me, both involving that case Ace.

, Hero calls $22 (All-In)

Total pot: $151.25 | Rake: $3
Main pot: $150.25 between CO, Hero and MP1, won by CO
Side pot 1: $1 between CO and MP1, won by CO

Results below:
Hero had 6, A (full house, Aces over sixes).
MP1 had J, J (full house, Jacks over Aces).
CO had A, K (full house, Aces over Kings).
Outcome: CO won $148.25

Now, my blue line is sunk since I got $32 in "baaaad" but I don't think I played it bad. I could have shoved the turn, but with the near certainty of stacking MP1 anyway and letting CO draw to a mere 3-outer I feel my small 4-bet was absolutely the correct play.

So here's the second hand where I got my money in "baaaad" against a passive 37/4 calling station

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com


Hero (BB) ($59.40)
UTG ($110.25)
UTG+1 ($30.60)
MP1 ($50)
MP2 ($106.65)
MP3 ($40.35)
CO ($54)
Button ($56.80)
SB ($50.40)


Preflop: Hero is BB with K, A
UTG calls $0.50, UTG+1 calls $0.50, 2 folds, MP3 bets $2.50, 2 folds, SB calls $2.25, Hero raises to $12.50,

Pretty standard squeeze from the Big Blind with AK given the table dynamics.

2 folds, MP3 calls $10, 1 fold

One caller, the 37/4 loose passive in Middle Position #3.

Flop: ($28.50) Q, 10, 4 (2 players)

Pretty good flop for me against a loose passive player. If he has a middle pair I've got 10 outs twice, any Ace, King, or a Jack for the straight. And I have to continue bet, since my perceived range should include AA, KK and QQ, all of which are monsters to this board which I'd play the exact same way.

Hero bets $18, MP3 raises to $27.85 (All-In)

Well, that sucks. But now I've still got 60/40 drawing odds unless somehow he has QQ, TT, 44 or (blockers) JJ, and it only costs me ~$10 to call. (Since I have an A and a K and MP3 plays so many hands, I figure AA and KK to be unlikely.)

, Hero calls $9.85

It turns out villain had 88; I played the hand absolutely correctly, imo (not per Sklansky, but you know what I mean), even though I got every penny in "baaaad" and my blue EV line will tell me I'm just a luckbox when the turn and river come a K for top pair and an unneeded J for the straight.

Turn: ($84.20) K (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($84.20) J (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $84.20 | Rake: $3

Main pot: $84.20 between Hero and MP3, won by Hero

Smashing Pumpkins - Blew Away