Democratic party about to go on tilt

It looks like Martha Coakley will lose to Scott Brown, with half the precincts now reporting. Update: Yeah, it's over, she lost. Of course, Massachusetts residents already have universal health care (a.k.a. RomneyCare) but I feel for the rest of my compatriots, and so sorry about the irony of that.

Nate Silver over at FiveThirtyEight.com gives his take on what happens next in Congress. Sounds tilty to me:

The greatest disadvantage, of course, is the possibility of mass panic, resulting not just from Coakley's loss but also from retirements, worrisome polling, and a toxic media environment. 2010 has gotten off to a really bad start on so many levels for the Democrats.

I'm reminded a bit of what happened to the New York Mets after their spectacular playoff collapse of 2007, the second-biggest choke in baseball history, after which the Mets surprisingly did not fire their manager, Willie Randolph. The collapse had been so sudden, so total, and so unexpected that the the Mets sped straight through anger and immediately into grieving, and you don't fire anyone during a wake. (Randolph was fired once the Mets came to their sesnes 69 games into the 2008 season.)

The Democrats will be in a similar state of mind if Coakley loses tonight, and the White House's idea will be to give them something to focus upon before the the numbness wears off and the pain sets in. It might not work, but the State of the Union is fortuitously timed, and perhaps the only chance that Democrats have to turn Plan B into Plan B-plus. The only prediction I'd make is that ping-pong will happen quickly, or not at all.

We'll see! Don't blame me: I voted for Mike Capuano!

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart	Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c
Mass Backwards
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show Full Episodes Political Humor Health Care Crisis

Update: guy who used to write for Simpsons now has own show

Ooh. That Conan O'Brien. Well this is embarrassing. It's not entirely my fault -- it's on NBC for crying out loud, and I plain forgot there's another Conan besides me and Arnold. Oh and Arthur Conan Doyle of Sherlock Holmes fame; I guess he counts. Gee... if there's any more I'm starting a list and putting it on my fridge.

So... I'm going to try just going into work on Monday like nothing happened. It worked for George Costanza... or so I remember.

Weekly graph... eh, played 3 SnGs all week, lost $2. Use your imagination.

Although I used a few spare FPPs to buy into the Sunday Million. Currently in the middle of the pack with 6450 left. So that might be -$217 soon but that's not, you know, all real money.

Good luck at the tables, folks!

Edit: meh, placed 4,000th and something. Two hours with a 30% PFR luckbox on my immediate right while card dead. Finally get something going when guy on my left turned a set of fives from UTG+1, to crack the KK I couldn't c-bet on an A high flop. Then called off what I had left, AQ << TT. gg! I guess I won't quit my day job, er, I mean, again.

Go Conan!

I just want to thank everyone on the Internet for the recent outpouring of support. Even though I only started this blog back in September, this week's endless mentions in the media, Alyssa Milano's tweets...

even the spontaneous creation of a "Team Conan" clothing line...

are all nothing I expected when this blog first began.

Although, there are a few things I don't quite get. First off, despite all this sudden popularity, Google Analytics still shows my blog only getting ~15 hits a day. And, secondly, who the heck is this O'Brien fellow?

Eh, I'm sure those are just minor details which will work out by themselves. I'm running home to start packing for the worldwide press junket which will inevitably follow my sudden rise to fame. But first, I have a few choice words for my employer!

Jason Reitman -- Lost In The Air: The Jason Reitman Press Tour Simulator (Janie Jones)

Long Shot

From This American Life

Stories of people betting on something with very bad odds, mostly because they have no other choice.

Audio mp3 (not permanent!) *link broke*
Episode summary

While not exactly gambling related, the things the San Quentin prison inmate, Don Cronk, says in Act One about hope and despair in regards to getting parole is reminiscent of the range of emotions certain tournament players go through all the time. I try to let these small disappointments roll off my back myself, and that man's story puts it all in perspective.

And if I ever got a poker coach, I'd want one like Coach Paur!

Kentucky Derby 2009 -- Complete Overhead Camera

Study concludes players lose money by winning more hands

A sociology study analyzing 27 million 6-max cash game hands using PokerTracker published in December has hit the media.

From Online Poker News:

Siler explained his somewhat counter intuitive conclusion that ‘winning more hands meant losing more money,’ by concluding, “People overweigh their frequent small gains vis-à-vis occasional large losses,” such that after a few wins players often become more confident, thus setting themselves up for a loss on one or more very big hands.

Other interesting information to come from the study, is that small-stakes online poker players often extract better value from low pairs, sevens or less, than medium pairs, from eights to jacks. As Siler explains “This is because small pairs have a less ambiguous value, and medium pairs are better hands but have more ambiguous values that small-stakes players apparently have trouble understanding.”

From Time magazine:

You can learn a lot about gambling if you're willing to analyze 27 million hands of online poker. Don't have time for that? No worries; sociology doctoral student Kyle Siler of Cornell University has done it for you. His counterintuitive message: the more hands you win, the more money you're likely to lose — and this has implications that go well beyond a hand of cards.

This is potentially either very interesting... or just saying something most players figure out after their first dozen sessions. I'll delve further and post anything else interesting.

Or delve yourself: full text of study here.

Edit: scratch that, they want $34 bucks for it :(

Surefire signs that internet poker is taking over your life

Originally Posted by Knightsridge

2 years ago I needed new glasses and to buy them they give you a free eye test for the prescription of the lens.

Doctor says 'Do you read or use a computer a lot?'
me 'I read and I also use the computer a lot'
him 'word processing and surfing, or additional strain on the eyes'
me 'Well I play a little online poker sometimes'
him 'ok, well lets see how your eyes are'

He then switches off the lights and I do the 'please read the lines test.' He says 'read the 2nd line please'
The 2nd line has a 3 K J 2. So I obviously say, 'Three, King, Jack, Deuce.' I had no idea what I said was wrong until he looked at me and said 'A little poker?' Then I clued in.

Via 2+2

One time Dealer!!!

Poker Stars, $10 + $1 NL Hold'em Tournament, 27 Man MTT, 400/800 Blinds, 50 Ante, 2 Players

LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Hero (BB): 18,350

BTN: 22,150

Pre-Flop: (1,200) K 2 dealt to Hero (BB)

BTN raises to 3,200, Hero calls 2,400

Flop: (6,400) Q T K (2 Players)

Hero bets 15,100, BTN calls 15,100

Hero showed K 2

BTN showed 6 5

Turn: (36,600) 9 (2 Players)
River: (36,600) A (2 Players)
Results: 36,600 Pot

Hero showed K 2 and WON 36,700 (+19,200 NET)

BTN showed 6 5 and LOST (-17,900 NET)

Yessss, got my one time. :)

Not a bad week, imo.

Radiohead -- Everything in its right place

Stop overcalling monotone flops with a draw

Note to self again. Yeah, Conan, you're ahead of the first guy that shoved, but the second guy always has the nuts. Stop thinking that's just double the bounty. Sitting there drooling ready to click call is the wrong mindset in these spots!

P.S. straight flush draws never get there, u moran. :-\

I won an all in pre-flop today

Really! They of course flopped a set right in the window like always but this time I actually rivered the higher set.

It was kinda awesome.

The dozen other times today where I couldn't win a 70/30 or an 80/20, not so awesome. I even managed to get a shoved QQ cracked when the BB woke up with a monster: Q4o,  and that cost me at least 3rd place in a 27 man $22 (or about 40 bucks). I don't even want to know the odds on that one -- especially after I flopped top set?!

But: I'm trying to stay positive and focus on the one time I help up. Weeeee!

This guy needs to work on his C game

Dear Michael,

Every year I attempt to boost my students’ final grades by giving them this relatively simple exam consisting of 100 True/False questions from only 3 chapters of material. For the past 20 years that I have taught Intro Communications 101 at this institution I have never once seen someone score below a 65 on this exam. Consequently, your score of a zero is the first in history and ultimately brought the entire class average down a whole 8 points.

There were two possible answer choices: A (True) and B (False). You chose C for all 100 questions in an obvious attempt to get lucky with a least a quarter of the answers. It’s as if you didn’t look at a single question. Unfortunately, this brings your final grade in this class to failing. See you next year!

May God have mercy on your soul.

Sincerely,
Professor William Turner

P.S. If all else fails, go with B from now on. B is the new C

Via My[Confined]Space

I need to find a gambling related hobby

... so I don't just blow my roll when I'm in the mood to gamble, which I managed to mostly accomplish once again Tuesday night. All that SnG grinding for naught.

Such as low stakes online blackjack, maybe, or 0.01/0.02 PLO? Maybe even Badugi.

Anything to keep me away from my regular stakes when my head goes to that strange degenerate place.

The New Economy was an illusion

The Clintonites were wrong!

Is the American economy facing a lost decade? That is the wrong question to ask. The right question is this: Is the United States facing another lost decade? During the past 10 years, inflation-adjusted wages have stagnated or declined for working Americans; net job creation has been zero; and temporary, bubble-driven gains in the stock market have been erased.

This isn't what Bill Clinton and the other "New Democrats" of the 1990s promised us.

more... (via Salon.com)

How am I going to lose this one?

Bit of a losing streak this week, so moved up to chase loses. Is my luck about to change?

Edit: Yep, 1st place. Weeeeeeeeeee!

Almost fell into second place, until this hand happened. ez game, imo.

Poker Stars, $20 + $2 NL Hold'em Tournament, 27 Man MTT, 200/400 Blinds, 25 Ante, 3 Players

LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter



BTN: 17,152

Hero (SB): 17,187

BB: 6,161



Pre-Flop: (600) dealt to Hero (SB)

BTN calls 400, Hero raises to 2,000, BB folds, BTN calls 1,600



Flop: (4,400) (2 Players)

Hero bets 3,600, BTN calls 3,600



Turn: (11,600) (2 Players)

Hero checks, BTN checks



River: (11,600) (2 Players)

Hero bets 4,800, BTN raises to 11,527, Hero calls 6,727



Results: 34,654 Pot

BTN showed and LOST (-17,127 NET)

Hero showed and WON 34,729 (+17,802 NET)

Happy New Year!

Note to self: Do not bring home random hustlers you meet in Chinatown. That is all.

Well, wait, to clarify: I have discovered 100%, that, even though it's been a while since I've been with a woman, I am definitely not "on the down low."

And so, that is all. Weird night. Why don't I ever leave the house, again? Why don't I try to meet new friends? Oh right, now I remember. FML

Running hot and cold

My luck distribution is out of whack. I've been playing 27-man $11 and occasionally $5.50, and running meh overall. The games seem to run for me in three distinct variations.

a) I can't get any traction; just bleed away chips until I have to take a stand with a marginal hand and donk into the nuts.
b) I chip up OK, but eventually I'm all in on the flop, but can't dodge a 3-outer.
c) Win every single all-in, hit every draw, dominate the game, and get to the final table with 3/4ths of the chips in play, cruise control into first place.

I'd be happy to trade some of the luck in group (c) to group (b). Maybe I should just be careful what I wish for....

Counting Crows -- A Long December

Don't go broke in a limped pot

Note to self. That is all.

Watching Back to the Future II while waiting for my PT3 cache to update

It's weird to watch the second part of the trilogy on the cusp of 2010, since it is set in far-off 2015. To even imagine that in just five years, we could have flying cars, weather control, and a fusion reactor in every home.

And who knows: maybe by then my PokerTracker 3 cache will have finished updating. #$%^#$^

Just daring to dream!

Back from the wilds of Manchester

Hey folks -- I'm back from New Hampshire.

I finally figured out how to automate Tournament result importation into PT3. Doesn't quite work from e-mail, but with some cutting and pasting I can once again post a weekly graph.

Gee, I've really been slacking this week. But I'm off work all next week, so it's time to grind.

Merry X-mas everybody

Pac-man X-mas tree -->

$10 Sit and Go's are Free Money

Well, maybe not free money, but I figured if I included that phrase in my post title I'd increase my hit counter.

I had thought maybe it was just that Full Tilt was really soft. But I just cleared $69 in profit on PokerStars since my last post two hours ago: 2nd of 18, 3rd out of 27, and bubbled another 27 man.

I really think I've finally got stuff figured out. :-)

... To feel a wrath of the unruly awaking of a sleeping giant
(Very defiant), once I give you the pressure
And then I apply it and then your breathing is stopped and totally quiet (ssshhhh!)

The following video is Not Safe For Work!

Method Man featuring Busta Rhymes -- What's Happenin'

Donks are running good tonight

Oh come on....

PokerStars, 15/30 NO Limit Texas Holdem Tournament, 9 Players

Hand Converter by the Pokerhand.org community

Board:

Button: $3,070

SB: $2,970

BB: $4,030

UTG: $3,050

UTG+1: $2,210

MP1: $8,465

MP2: $3,310

MP4: $3,000

CO: $3,625

Dealt to: UTG+1

Pre-flop:

(1 folds), UTG+1 raises to $120, (1 folds), MP2 calls $120, MP4 calls $120, CO calls $120, (1 folds), SB calls $105, BB calls $90,

Flop:($720) (6 Players)

SB checks, BB bets $510, UTG+1 raises to $2,090 and is all-in, (4 folds), BB calls $1,580,

Turn: ($4,900) (2 Players)

River: ($4,900) (2 Players)

Results:

BB Showed

UTG+1 Showed

BB wins $4,900

I think I'll stick to SnGs tonight....