Kasparov on Chess AI, suggests poker is the future

In the coming New York Review of Books:

Like so much else in our technology-rich and innovation-poor modern world, chess computing has fallen prey to incrementalism and the demands of the market. Brute-force programs play the best chess, so why bother with anything else? Why waste time and money experimenting with new and innovative ideas when we already know what works? Such thinking should horrify anyone worthy of the name of scientist, but it seems, tragically, to be the norm. Our best minds have gone into financial engineering instead of real engineering, with catastrophic results for both sectors.

Perhaps chess is the wrong game for the times. Poker is now everywhere, as amateurs dream of winning millions and being on television for playing a card game whose complexities can be detailed on a single piece of paper. But while chess is a 100 percent information game—both players are aware of all the data all the time—and therefore directly susceptible to computing power, poker has hidden cards and variable stakes, creating critical roles for chance, bluffing, and risk management.

Full article (although this is most of what he had to say....)

Joe Klein goes on tilt

Former People's Republic of Cambridge reporter and Democrat biographer Joe Klein flips out over polls showing Americans hate the stimulus and calls his fellow Americans a nation of dodos.


Told you so! ;-)

The Trash Heap has spoken!

I had a moment of clarity last weekend. I was trying to locate a little tube of thermal grease to try and re-grease my CPU so it would stop overheating. So I'm going through this pile of stuff in the corner of my office, and not finding it for the life of me, when the thought crossed my mind that nothing I had picked up in the last 5 minutes was a single thing I would ever miss were it thrown out tomorrow. So, wait, why exactly am I sitting here sorting through the rough?

I'd like to think this is due to some heavy hippie-dippie indoctrination about litter I got during my formative years. Crying Indians and all that. And somehow my mind is wired such that it's not trash until I put the trash in the trash bag.....

Really, how bad for the enviroment can throwing away one plastic bottle be?

Besides, Copenhagen failed so we're all doomed anyway, regardless of whether that empty liquor bottle is in a heap in a corner of my house or in a trash heap at the dump.

I wonder if my fondness for junk is why I sometimes play too many poker hands? Hmmm.... Either way, I'm working on it.

It's one thing when your place is such a mess you need to clean it up before a woman comes over. Most bachelors have that. But this morning I had to clean it up because I had a plumber coming over. Christ, I can't let a plumber know I live like this.

Nyeah!

Reminder: WBCOOP starts today

At 5pm ET. I'll be still at work, which gives the rest of you a huge edge. gogogogogo!

Conan bids farewell

(No, not me, the other Conan.)

Previous leveling aside, the truth is that when I was a kid, I didn't want to grow up to be Johnny Carson, but I certainly had the fantasy of doing something worthy of actually being on The Tonight Show with Johnny Carson. Mainly that idea revolved around his recurring bit with child inventors. I always thought to myself that somehow I'd invent some gizmo and be one of those kids the next time around. And even though I grew up, I watched Mr. Carson's last show realizing that was the end of that one silly dream.

Then again, I am an engineer now, and I sit around inventing better algorithms all day. That's not entirely a coincidence.

Still, I imagine some of my younger poker-playing readers don't fully appreciate that before CNN and cable and these endless reality shows, just getting on TV as a real person (not just as the blurred rush of an interchangeable game show contestant) would be a big deal. Not like it is now, where you can get on TV all you want if you are willing to eat live bugs or pretend to send your six year old up in a weather balloon or otherwise act the fool. I can even imagine the next next generation will spend their childhoods imagining how not to end up on TV. (Writing the word F*** on your forehead used to work, but who knows what the next 20 or 30 years will bring?)

But back to Mr. O'Brien: by getting the Tonight Show he ultimately fulfilled by proxy a dream a lot of Generation X shared. And it's poignant, at least for me, to see that epoch come and go so quickly. I admit, I didn't watch his Tonight Show much between the premiere and the past few weeks. Between work, poker, and my DVR's prime time backlog I just never found the time. But, Tonight is a practically a national institution. I haven't watched C-SPAN in years, but Congress is still there. Who thinks to themselves: if I don't watch the Tonight Show it'll go away?

But bygones are bygones I guess. And I have to say, I really liked his farewell message:

So to all the people watching: I can never ever thank you enough for the kindness to me. I'll think about it for the rest of my life. And all I ask is one thing and this is -- I'm asking this particularly of young people that watch: please do not be cynical. I hate cynicism. For the record, it's my least favorite quality. It doesn't lead anywhere. Nobody in life gets exactly what they thought they were going to get. But if you work really hard and you're kind, amazing things will happen. I'm telling you: amazing things will happen. I'm telling you. It's just true.

Followed by an epically appropriate rendition of the song Free Bird.

Update: Gawker has the vids

Democratic party about to go on tilt

It looks like Martha Coakley will lose to Scott Brown, with half the precincts now reporting. Update: Yeah, it's over, she lost. Of course, Massachusetts residents already have universal health care (a.k.a. RomneyCare) but I feel for the rest of my compatriots, and so sorry about the irony of that.

Nate Silver over at FiveThirtyEight.com gives his take on what happens next in Congress. Sounds tilty to me:

The greatest disadvantage, of course, is the possibility of mass panic, resulting not just from Coakley's loss but also from retirements, worrisome polling, and a toxic media environment. 2010 has gotten off to a really bad start on so many levels for the Democrats.

I'm reminded a bit of what happened to the New York Mets after their spectacular playoff collapse of 2007, the second-biggest choke in baseball history, after which the Mets surprisingly did not fire their manager, Willie Randolph. The collapse had been so sudden, so total, and so unexpected that the the Mets sped straight through anger and immediately into grieving, and you don't fire anyone during a wake. (Randolph was fired once the Mets came to their sesnes 69 games into the 2008 season.)

The Democrats will be in a similar state of mind if Coakley loses tonight, and the White House's idea will be to give them something to focus upon before the the numbness wears off and the pain sets in. It might not work, but the State of the Union is fortuitously timed, and perhaps the only chance that Democrats have to turn Plan B into Plan B-plus. The only prediction I'd make is that ping-pong will happen quickly, or not at all.

We'll see! Don't blame me: I voted for Mike Capuano!

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart	Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c
Mass Backwards
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show Full Episodes Political Humor Health Care Crisis

Update: guy who used to write for Simpsons now has own show

Ooh. That Conan O'Brien. Well this is embarrassing. It's not entirely my fault -- it's on NBC for crying out loud, and I plain forgot there's another Conan besides me and Arnold. Oh and Arthur Conan Doyle of Sherlock Holmes fame; I guess he counts. Gee... if there's any more I'm starting a list and putting it on my fridge.

So... I'm going to try just going into work on Monday like nothing happened. It worked for George Costanza... or so I remember.

Weekly graph... eh, played 3 SnGs all week, lost $2. Use your imagination.

Although I used a few spare FPPs to buy into the Sunday Million. Currently in the middle of the pack with 6450 left. So that might be -$217 soon but that's not, you know, all real money.

Good luck at the tables, folks!

Edit: meh, placed 4,000th and something. Two hours with a 30% PFR luckbox on my immediate right while card dead. Finally get something going when guy on my left turned a set of fives from UTG+1, to crack the KK I couldn't c-bet on an A high flop. Then called off what I had left, AQ << TT. gg! I guess I won't quit my day job, er, I mean, again.

Go Conan!

I just want to thank everyone on the Internet for the recent outpouring of support. Even though I only started this blog back in September, this week's endless mentions in the media, Alyssa Milano's tweets...

even the spontaneous creation of a "Team Conan" clothing line...

are all nothing I expected when this blog first began.

Although, there are a few things I don't quite get. First off, despite all this sudden popularity, Google Analytics still shows my blog only getting ~15 hits a day. And, secondly, who the heck is this O'Brien fellow?

Eh, I'm sure those are just minor details which will work out by themselves. I'm running home to start packing for the worldwide press junket which will inevitably follow my sudden rise to fame. But first, I have a few choice words for my employer!

Jason Reitman -- Lost In The Air: The Jason Reitman Press Tour Simulator (Janie Jones)

Long Shot

From This American Life

Stories of people betting on something with very bad odds, mostly because they have no other choice.

Audio mp3 (not permanent!) *link broke*
Episode summary

While not exactly gambling related, the things the San Quentin prison inmate, Don Cronk, says in Act One about hope and despair in regards to getting parole is reminiscent of the range of emotions certain tournament players go through all the time. I try to let these small disappointments roll off my back myself, and that man's story puts it all in perspective.

And if I ever got a poker coach, I'd want one like Coach Paur!

Kentucky Derby 2009 -- Complete Overhead Camera

Study concludes players lose money by winning more hands

A sociology study analyzing 27 million 6-max cash game hands using PokerTracker published in December has hit the media.

From Online Poker News:

Siler explained his somewhat counter intuitive conclusion that ‘winning more hands meant losing more money,’ by concluding, “People overweigh their frequent small gains vis-à-vis occasional large losses,” such that after a few wins players often become more confident, thus setting themselves up for a loss on one or more very big hands.

Other interesting information to come from the study, is that small-stakes online poker players often extract better value from low pairs, sevens or less, than medium pairs, from eights to jacks. As Siler explains “This is because small pairs have a less ambiguous value, and medium pairs are better hands but have more ambiguous values that small-stakes players apparently have trouble understanding.”

From Time magazine:

You can learn a lot about gambling if you're willing to analyze 27 million hands of online poker. Don't have time for that? No worries; sociology doctoral student Kyle Siler of Cornell University has done it for you. His counterintuitive message: the more hands you win, the more money you're likely to lose — and this has implications that go well beyond a hand of cards.

This is potentially either very interesting... or just saying something most players figure out after their first dozen sessions. I'll delve further and post anything else interesting.

Or delve yourself: full text of study here.

Edit: scratch that, they want $34 bucks for it :(

Surefire signs that internet poker is taking over your life

Originally Posted by Knightsridge

2 years ago I needed new glasses and to buy them they give you a free eye test for the prescription of the lens.

Doctor says 'Do you read or use a computer a lot?'
me 'I read and I also use the computer a lot'
him 'word processing and surfing, or additional strain on the eyes'
me 'Well I play a little online poker sometimes'
him 'ok, well lets see how your eyes are'

He then switches off the lights and I do the 'please read the lines test.' He says 'read the 2nd line please'
The 2nd line has a 3 K J 2. So I obviously say, 'Three, King, Jack, Deuce.' I had no idea what I said was wrong until he looked at me and said 'A little poker?' Then I clued in.

Via 2+2

One time Dealer!!!

Poker Stars, $10 + $1 NL Hold'em Tournament, 27 Man MTT, 400/800 Blinds, 50 Ante, 2 Players

LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Hero (BB): 18,350

BTN: 22,150

Pre-Flop: (1,200) K 2 dealt to Hero (BB)

BTN raises to 3,200, Hero calls 2,400

Flop: (6,400) Q T K (2 Players)

Hero bets 15,100, BTN calls 15,100

Hero showed K 2

BTN showed 6 5

Turn: (36,600) 9 (2 Players)
River: (36,600) A (2 Players)
Results: 36,600 Pot

Hero showed K 2 and WON 36,700 (+19,200 NET)

BTN showed 6 5 and LOST (-17,900 NET)

Yessss, got my one time. :)

Not a bad week, imo.

Radiohead -- Everything in its right place

Stop overcalling monotone flops with a draw

Note to self again. Yeah, Conan, you're ahead of the first guy that shoved, but the second guy always has the nuts. Stop thinking that's just double the bounty. Sitting there drooling ready to click call is the wrong mindset in these spots!

P.S. straight flush draws never get there, u moran. :-\

I won an all in pre-flop today

Really! They of course flopped a set right in the window like always but this time I actually rivered the higher set.

It was kinda awesome.

The dozen other times today where I couldn't win a 70/30 or an 80/20, not so awesome. I even managed to get a shoved QQ cracked when the BB woke up with a monster: Q4o,  and that cost me at least 3rd place in a 27 man $22 (or about 40 bucks). I don't even want to know the odds on that one -- especially after I flopped top set?!

But: I'm trying to stay positive and focus on the one time I help up. Weeeee!

This guy needs to work on his C game

Dear Michael,

Every year I attempt to boost my students’ final grades by giving them this relatively simple exam consisting of 100 True/False questions from only 3 chapters of material. For the past 20 years that I have taught Intro Communications 101 at this institution I have never once seen someone score below a 65 on this exam. Consequently, your score of a zero is the first in history and ultimately brought the entire class average down a whole 8 points.

There were two possible answer choices: A (True) and B (False). You chose C for all 100 questions in an obvious attempt to get lucky with a least a quarter of the answers. It’s as if you didn’t look at a single question. Unfortunately, this brings your final grade in this class to failing. See you next year!

May God have mercy on your soul.

Sincerely,
Professor William Turner

P.S. If all else fails, go with B from now on. B is the new C

Via My[Confined]Space

I need to find a gambling related hobby

... so I don't just blow my roll when I'm in the mood to gamble, which I managed to mostly accomplish once again Tuesday night. All that SnG grinding for naught.

Such as low stakes online blackjack, maybe, or 0.01/0.02 PLO? Maybe even Badugi.

Anything to keep me away from my regular stakes when my head goes to that strange degenerate place.

The New Economy was an illusion

The Clintonites were wrong!

Is the American economy facing a lost decade? That is the wrong question to ask. The right question is this: Is the United States facing another lost decade? During the past 10 years, inflation-adjusted wages have stagnated or declined for working Americans; net job creation has been zero; and temporary, bubble-driven gains in the stock market have been erased.

This isn't what Bill Clinton and the other "New Democrats" of the 1990s promised us.

more... (via Salon.com)

How am I going to lose this one?

Bit of a losing streak this week, so moved up to chase loses. Is my luck about to change?

Edit: Yep, 1st place. Weeeeeeeeeee!

Almost fell into second place, until this hand happened. ez game, imo.

Poker Stars, $20 + $2 NL Hold'em Tournament, 27 Man MTT, 200/400 Blinds, 25 Ante, 3 Players

LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter



BTN: 17,152

Hero (SB): 17,187

BB: 6,161



Pre-Flop: (600) dealt to Hero (SB)

BTN calls 400, Hero raises to 2,000, BB folds, BTN calls 1,600



Flop: (4,400) (2 Players)

Hero bets 3,600, BTN calls 3,600



Turn: (11,600) (2 Players)

Hero checks, BTN checks



River: (11,600) (2 Players)

Hero bets 4,800, BTN raises to 11,527, Hero calls 6,727



Results: 34,654 Pot

BTN showed and LOST (-17,127 NET)

Hero showed and WON 34,729 (+17,802 NET)

Happy New Year!

Note to self: Do not bring home random hustlers you meet in Chinatown. That is all.

Well, wait, to clarify: I have discovered 100%, that, even though it's been a while since I've been with a woman, I am definitely not "on the down low."

And so, that is all. Weird night. Why don't I ever leave the house, again? Why don't I try to meet new friends? Oh right, now I remember. FML

Running hot and cold

My luck distribution is out of whack. I've been playing 27-man $11 and occasionally $5.50, and running meh overall. The games seem to run for me in three distinct variations.

a) I can't get any traction; just bleed away chips until I have to take a stand with a marginal hand and donk into the nuts.
b) I chip up OK, but eventually I'm all in on the flop, but can't dodge a 3-outer.
c) Win every single all-in, hit every draw, dominate the game, and get to the final table with 3/4ths of the chips in play, cruise control into first place.

I'd be happy to trade some of the luck in group (c) to group (b). Maybe I should just be careful what I wish for....

Counting Crows -- A Long December

Don't go broke in a limped pot

Note to self. That is all.

Watching Back to the Future II while waiting for my PT3 cache to update

It's weird to watch the second part of the trilogy on the cusp of 2010, since it is set in far-off 2015. To even imagine that in just five years, we could have flying cars, weather control, and a fusion reactor in every home.

And who knows: maybe by then my PokerTracker 3 cache will have finished updating. #$%^#$^

Just daring to dream!

Back from the wilds of Manchester

Hey folks -- I'm back from New Hampshire.

I finally figured out how to automate Tournament result importation into PT3. Doesn't quite work from e-mail, but with some cutting and pasting I can once again post a weekly graph.

Gee, I've really been slacking this week. But I'm off work all next week, so it's time to grind.